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18 June and 01 August 2014
  1. In its first meeting on June 18, Secretary Jericho Petilla explained the rationale for the creation of the TF.  The business sector represented by PCCI, ECOP, FFCCCIII, MAP, MBC and JFC committed to support the TF and its objectives and explained the broader perspective of the need to address supply sufficiency and rate affordability as these impact on economic and business competitiveness.
     
  2. At the second meeting of the committee on August 7, Sec. Petilla presented the supply-demand outlook2014-2020 highlighting summer of 2015.
  3. Luzon is in danger of having brownouts next year.
  4. Committed plants for 2014 are coming in without indication of a delay - the 135 MW Puting Bato Unit 1 which will be on commercial operation by October 2014, the 150 MW Southwest Luzon Thermal Energy Corp. (SLTEC) in Calaca by DMCI by December 2014.
  5. Luzon will have very thin reserves from March to May 2015 and there will be 5 weeks (Weeks 11, 12, 13, 17 & 18) when Luzon grid will be on Yellow Alert and 5 weeks (Weeks 14, 15, 19, 20, 21) on Red Alert with possible Manual Load Dropping (MLD).
  6. Under an El Niño scenario from mid-March to May 2015, Luzon Grid will be on Red Alert status and MLD is very likely.
  7. Commissioning 200 MW June 2015 
  8. Turbines delivery by May 2014
  9. Turbines delivery postponed (twice) 
  10. Timetable uncertain
  11. 2014 NGCP Peak projection off by 100 MW 
  12. Actual: 
  13. Factors Considered in the DOE Projection for Summer 2015
 
January 2014
March 2014
June 2014
Energy World Corporation
Commissioning 200 MW Dec. 2014
 
 
Malaya Unit 1
Available 300 MW
Unplanned Outage: Estimated Repair – 30 days
Repair completion – June 2015
Supply-Demand
2014 NGCP Forecast projection – sufficient supply to cover increased demand
2014 NGCP Forecast projection – sufficient supply to cover increased demand
-          5 Yellow Alerts -          3 Red Alerts* *Manual Load Drop
Outages
Average Annual Forced Outage on total dependable capacity 6.6%
Average Annual Forced Outage on total dependable capacity 6.6%
Year-on-year monthly average force outage on total dependable capacity: Mar 6.3% April 4.9% May 7.7%
  1. Discussing the proposed emergency powers, Sec. Petilla showed what the DOE can do with and without Section 71 of EPIRA:
 
Without Section 71
With Section 71
Measure 1: Energy Efficiency (looking at 50 to 80 MW of savings)
Implementation
Voluntary 
Mandatory
Participants
Government and some Private Sector
Government and some Private Sector
Examples 
  • Set thermostat of cooling systems to 25oC or switch off during peak hours or limit operation of number of cooling systems set at 25oC
  • Direct energy intensive activities during off-peak hours
  • Adjustment of work week from Monday to Friday to Tuesday to Saturday during the period
  • Limit operation of billboards
  • Purely commercial arrangement between DUs and large captive customers; low compliance due to commercial issues on pricing and cross billing 
  • Subject to ERC when charged to captive customers 
  • Since 2013, DOE and ERC hammering commercial concerns among possible ILP participants
  • Mandatory participation includes DUs, Contestable Customers and Large Captive Customers 
  • Government through PSALM administers the settlement and payment among the participants
  • Capacity traded in the WESM
  • As of July 2013, FPI expressed preference for the application of this model for the short term under Section 71.
 
Measure 2: Interruptible Load Program (looking at additional 250 MW)
Implementation 
Voluntary
Mandatory subject to payment of just compensation 
Arrangements Concerns 
 
 
Measure 3: Avion Power Project (200 MW)
Implementation  Timeline
September 2015
March 2015
Capacity (arrangement)
100 MW (Merchant)
100 MW (Merchant)100 MW (Government Lease)
Arrangement
Traded in the WESM
Traded in the WESM by First Gas for the Merchant Capacity and by PSALM for Government Lease 
Measure 4: Additional Capacity Rental (LAST RESORT) 
Implementation Timeline
Not Applicable
On or before March 2015
Capacity (arrangement)
Not applicable
Final capacity will be less capacity generated from measures 1-3
Cost Estimates
Not applicable
P750 Million to P1 Billion per 100 MW per year for 2 year contract
Features
Not applicable 
  1. PSALM to contract additional generation capacity in the form of rental and ILP
  2. Negotiated contracts for the additional generation capacity 
  3. Arrangements will be  time-bound not to exceed beyond critical period
  4. PIPPA also made a presentation on its proposals to reduce power rate. Accordingly, a target rate of P1.75/kWh or 20% of the bill can be lowered from the following:
    1. Near Term Fixes
  • Auction of Long-term PSAs - P0.10/kWh
  • Full BOI Incentives - P0.30/kWh
  • Reducing System Loss - P0.07/kWh
  • Removing Universal Charges - P0.3143/kWh
  • Direct Connection of Host Communities/Industries - P0.50/kWh
  1. Medium-Term Fixes
  • Tax Harmonization - P1.00/kWh (Long term fix)
 
Discussing the proposed emergency powers, Sec. Petilla showed what the DOE can do with and without Section 71 of EPIRA:
 

 

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